The FAF as a Policy and Systems Analysis Tool

Slide 1: The FAF as a Policy and Systems Analysis Tool

Bruce Lambert
Office of Freight Management and Operations
U.S. Department of Transportation
Federal Highway Administration

Logo of U.S. Department of Transportation

Images of a truck, a row of freight containers, a ship, and an airplane

Slide 2: The Freight Analysis Framework (FAF) – Basic Objectives

Understand magnitude and geography of freight moving on the nation's transportation system
Develop tool to evaluate emerging congestion and capacity challenges related to freight
Support reauthorization policy analysis
Involved:
- Synthesis of diverse data (BTS, Army Corps, Reebie Truck, Rail Waybill Sample, etc.)
- Working across the modes.
- Understanding emerging logistics and trade/transportation issues

Slide 3: Freight by Mode, Moving within the U.S., 1998 – (15 Billion Tons, $9 Trillion)

Bar graph of freight by mode within the U.S. in 1998. Domestic trucking is shown at 10 billion tons and $6 trillion, domestic rail at 2 billion tons and $1 trillion, domestic water at 1 billion tons and less than $1 trillion, domestic air at less than 1 billion tons and almost $1 trillion, and international total at almost 2 billion tons and $1 trillion.

Speaker Notes:

National summary of freight by tons and value moved by each of the modes for 1998.

This is only domestic movements, and international shipments represent another 10% of total U.S. freight activity.

Truck is the largest mode in the United States, as this figure includes not only the intercity movements, but also the local and regional activities. The other modes, while important, are dominated by truck volumes, especially in the local or shorter regional markets.

For the other modes, rail and water handle bulk products, which are quite heavy, but generally less expensive on a per ton basis.

Air shipments, while carrying small total tonnages compared to the other modes, do carry higher valued products.

Slide 4: Truck, Rail and Water Segments of 1 Million Tons or More (1998)

Image Details

Slide 5: Freight Analysis Framework FAF Truck Flow (1998)

Image Details

Slide 6: Total Traffic Forecasts (domestic and international) by Tons – 1998, 2010, 2020

Image Details

Slide 7: Growth in VMT by Vehicle Type on the FAF Network, 1998 to 2020

	1998	2010	2020	98 - 10	98 - 20
	VMT			CAGR
Passenger Car VMT	1,164,215	1,490,267	1,728,586	2.1%	1.8%
Non-FAF Truck VMT	80,703	125,906	164,159	3.8%	3.3%
FAF-Truck VMT	81,125	124,119	163,881	3.6%	3.2%
All Truck VMT	161,827	250,025	328,041	3.7%	3.3%
All Vehicle VMT	1,326,042	1,740,291	2,056,627	2.3%	2.0%

Slide 8: Estimated Congestion on the NHS in 2020

Map of the U.S. National Highway System in 2020. Growth in traffic will result in additional congestion on the nation's highways. In 2020, most of the nation's urban roads will either approach or exceed capacity, and rural Interstate segments that link major urban markets will also experience higher vehicle volumes.

Slide 9: Estimates of Freight Movements in the NASTO Region (FAF Database tonnage and values)

	1998	2020	%Change	1998	2020	%Change
	Tons (millions)			Value (billions $)
By Mode
Air	5	14	184%	282	1,204	327%
Highway	3,188	5,659	78%	2,448	7,694	214%
Other	469	658	40%	60	123	106%
Rail	839	1,365	63%	235	647	176%
Water	306	442	45%	46	120	162%
Grand Total	4,807	8,138	69%	3,070	9,788	219%
By Destination/Market
Domestic	3,990	6,665	67%	2,593	7,918	205%
International	817	1,473	80%	478	1,869	291%
Grand Total	4,807	8,138	69%	3,070	9,788	219%

Slide 10: Estimates of Freight Movements in the NASTO Region (FAF Database tonnage and values)

Tons (millions)	1998	2020
Nonmetallic Minerals	884	1,056
Crude Petroleum or Natural Gas	423	543
Coal	407	540
Farm Products	400	564
Petroleum or Coal Products	390	550
Value (billions)
Transportation Equipment	440	1,033
Chemicals or Allied Products	367	1,013
Secondary Traffic	352	1,475
Food or Kindred Products	308	1,156
Machinery	202	846

Slide 11: Massachusetts: Total Combined Truck Flows (1998)

Image Details

Slide 12: Pennsylvania Total Rail Flows (1999)

U.S. map showing freight network flows by rail in all 48 contiguous states, with more than 5 million tons for the year shown on rail networks within Pennsylvania and between Pennsylvania and Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, Indiana, and Illinois.

Slide 13: Estimated Total Trucks Volumes – NY Region, 1998

Map of New York and surrounding area showing average annual daily truck traffic in 1998, with the heaviest traffic in urban areas and along Interstate corridors, especially I-90 and I-95.

Slide 14: Estimated Total Trucks Volumes – NY Region, 2020

Map of New York and surrounding area showing projected average annual daily truck traffic in 2020, with the heaviest traffic in urban areas and along Interstate corridors, as in 1998, especially I-81, I-87, I-90, and I-95. This projection does not consider the addition of new capacity or improvements to the existing infrastructure.

Slide 15: I-10 Corridor Analysis in 2000 (Source: Wilber Smith)

Image Details

Slide 16: Colorado V/C Ratio Distribution 2020

Map of Colorado showing the volume to capacity ratio distribution for 2020. Most roads are shown below capacity, but those in the center of the state are shown as approaching capacity and those near Denver and Colorado Springs are shown as exceeding capacity.

Slide 17: Items Released this Fall

Data release
- Commodity Database
- Highway Capacity Database
Maps of freight activity for nation, states, selected metro areas and gateways
State Freight Profiles
- Still developing more items…

Slide 18: FHWA Office of Freight Management and Operations, USDOT

http://www.ops.fhwa.dot.gov/freight

Bruce Lambert
Project Manger
202-366-4241