FAF²: PROVISIONAL COMMODITY ORIGIN-DESTINATION ESTIMATES

FINAL REPORT

Submitted to

Office of Freight Management and Operations
Federal Highway Administration
Washington DC

Prepared by

In Association with

MacroSys Research and Technology

University of Tennessee

November, 2007

You will need the Adobe Acrobat Reader to view the PDFs on this page.

---

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1.0 INTRODUCTION

• 1.1 Report Organization

2.0 FREIGHT MOVEMENT BY HIGHWAY

• 2.1 Introduction
• 2.2 Principal Data Sources
• 2.3 Methodology for Domestic Freight
  • 2.3.1 Determine Annual Growth of Highway Freight at the National Level
    • 2.3.1.1 Freight Tonnage
    • 2.3.1.2 Freight Value
  • 2.3.2 Estimate Growth Factors for Each O-D Pairs of FAF Regions
    • 2.3.2.1 1^st Determine Annual State Growth
    • 2.3.2.2 2nd Estimate County Share of State Growth
    • 2.3.2.3 3rd Estimate FAF Regional Growth
    • 2.3.2.4 4th Estimate Annual Growth Factors for Each O-D Pairs of FAF Regions
  • 2.3.3 Estimate Growth of Highway Freight for Each FAF O-D Pair
  • 2.3.4 Determine the Provisional Freight Flow Estimates for Each FAF O-D Pairs
• 2.4 Methodology for International Freight
  • 2.4.1 Determine State Transborder Highway Freight to and from Canada and Mexico by Port of Exit and Entry
  • 2.4.2 Disaggregate State Level Imports and Exports into FAF Regions
    • 2.4.2.1 Imports
    • 2.4.2.2 Exports

3.0 FREIGHT MOVEMENT BY AIR

• 3.1 Introduction
• 3.2 Data Sources
  • 3.2.1 OAI Data
  • 3.2.2 Census Foreign Trade Data
  • 3.2.3 Further Notes on the Data
• 3.3 Combining Census and OAI Data
  • 3.3.1 Cross-Walks for Commodity and Geographic Information
  • 3.3.2 Estimating Flows by Weight
  • 3.3.3 Estimating Commodity Composition and Value
    • 3.3.3.1 International Routes
    • 3.3.3.2 Domestic Routes
• 3.4 Forecasting Data for the Remainder of the Year
  • 3.4.1 Forecasting the OAI Data for Tons Shipped
    • 3.4.1.1 Mathematical Specification of the Adjusted Tons and Forecasts
  • 3.4.2 Forecasting the Commodity Distribution and Price
    • 3.4.2.1 International Shipments
    • 3.4.2.2 Domestic Shipments
  • 3.4.3 Conclusion

4.0 FREIGHT MOVEMENT BY RAIL

• 4.1 Introduction
• 4.2 Principal Data Sources
• 4.3 Domestic Rail Flows
  • 4.3.1 Rail Flows to Deep-Draft Ports
• 4.4 Methodology for International Freight
  • 4.4.1 Methodology for International Freight
  • 4.4.2 Determine State-Level Transborder Rail Freight to and from Canada and Mexico
    • 4.4.2.1 Imports
    • 4.4.2.2 Exports
    • 4.4.2.3 Initial Aggregation
  • 4.4.3 Disaggregate Estimates of Transborder Rail Freight by State to FAF-Level Estimates
    • 4.4.3.1 Imports
    • 4.4.3.2 Exports
  • 4.4.4 Allocate FAF-Level Flows to Ports
    • 4.4.4.1 Imports
    • 4.4.4.2 Exports
  • 4.4.5 Combine Import and Export Data
  • 4.4.6 Future Directions

5.0 FREIGHT MOVEMENT BY WATER

• 5.1 Domestic Waterborne Freight
  • 5.1.1 Data Sources
  • 5.1.2 Methodology
    • 5.1.2.1 Weight Estimates
    • 5.1.2.2 Value Estimates
• 5.2 International Freight by Water
  • 5.2.1 Data Sources
  • 5.2.2 Methodology

6.0 FREIGHT MOVEMENT BY PIPELINE

• 6.1 Introduction
• 6.2 Data Sources
• 6.3 Estimation Methodology
  • 6.3.1 Domestic Movements by Pipeline
  • 6.3.2 International Movements by Pipeline

7.0 COMPILATION OF PROVISIONAL DATABASES

• 7.1 Introduction
• 7.2 Provisional Databases

8.0 CONCLUSIONS

9.0 REFERENCES

APPENDIX A. COMPARISON OF DATA SOURCES AND FORECASTS

List of Tables

• Table 4-1. Relationship between Employment, Demographic, and Rail Flow
• Table 4-2. FAF Commodity Definitions and PPI
• Table 6-1. Data Availability for Freight Movement by Pipeline
• Table A-1. A Comparison of the OAI and Customs Data with FAF
• Table A-2. Third Quarter Forecasts of Tons Enplaned by Foreign Carriers (in 1,000s)
• Table A-3. Fourth Quarter Forecasts of Tons Enplaned by All Carriers (in 1,000s)

List of Figures

• Figure 6-1. Petroleum Administration for Defense Districts (PADD)
• Figure 7-1. Provisional O-D Databases